News

Economic Outlook 2017-18

This week, we publish updated economic forecasts for 2016-17 and present our 2018 projections for the first time. After GDP…

Interdependence Day

It has been apparent in recent years that the market is more interested in central banks than economic data. Now it appears to be…

Eventually

Geopolitical events such as the UK referendum on EU membership are troublesome for investors. What is the best way to react? Be brave by…

Grave new world

Do economists have a natural propensity towards optimism? If we look at the weight of forecasts published by the economists of the…

Outside chances

Last Friday's US payroll figures have sent the likelihood of a June rate hike by the Fed pretty well back to zero. But as ever, we…

Stimulating conversation

Somewhat implausibly, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe used the platform of last week's G7 meeting to declare that the…

Air of mistery

The Federal Reserve is not an advocate of mystery – quite the opposite. Its default position is to reveal all to the market, the only…

Borrowed time

One of the many paradoxes thrown up by the world of ultra-low interest rates is the disinclination to borrow. Why would borrowers,…

"Deferendum"
While many commentators are opining on the likely longterm economic consequences,  should the UK vote to leave the EU on June 23rd,…

In their bid to revive the ailing global economy, the major central banks are on the hunt for a medicine that works. Having explored almost all other…

Print prescription

Increasingly extreme monetary stimulus measures are proving remarkably ineffectual at breaking the economy out of the low growth,…

Profit motivation
The function of profits used to be so simple. In part they were used to reward investors short-term, via dividend pay-outs, but in…

Discounting discounts

In today's global society, the changing seasons might seem almost irrelevant. It is always spring or summer somewhere in the…

Chinese Whispers

The Fed is worrying again about the ongoing deceleration
of China's economy and the possible ramifications of a
hard landing for the…

Chinese Whispers

The Fed is worrying again about the ongoing deceleration of China's economy and the possible ramifications of a hard landing for the…