UBS Macro Monthly - Februar 2023
Highlights
- Financial assets have performed strongly to start the year, reflecting fading investor pessimism on the likelihood of a recession as decelerating inflation means central bank tightening cycles are winding down.
- We believe evidence of economic reacceleration from the US, China, and Europe is a more powerful catalyst for markets going forward.
- Cyclical areas of the equity market have more room to run to reflect this better-than-expected growth backdrop, in our view.
- Growth resilience raises the odds that inflation will remain sticky and elevated relative to the pre-pandemic cycle, which may challenge valuations for more expensive segments within global equities, like the US.
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